By Jamie McGeever
ORLANDO, Florida, Aug 3 (Reuters) – World stocks leaped to record highs on Tuesday, boosted by a relentless stream of strong U.S. and global earnings, with another slump in oil prices on Middle East peace hopes pushing down on bond yields and boosting investor sentiment also.
In my column today, I dig deeper into America’s unprecedented currency market intervention last week. Washington’s commitment to help Japan prop up the yen should not be doubted, but there is a fair degree of self-interest at play too, especially regarding the $29 trillion U.S. Treasury market.
If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today.
1. Bessent’s call to upsize Fed foreign lending facility may not be risk-free
2. Japan may not have intervened in FX market on Monday despite yen’s surge, BOJ data suggests
3. US economy is overstimulated — and bond markets fear it: Mike Dolan
4. EXCLUSIVE-Trump administration drafting ban on Chinese data center devices, sources say
5. EXCLUSIVE-Shein targets $30 billion to $40 billion Hong Kong IPO valuation this month, sources say
Today’s Key Market Moves
• STOCKS: MSCI All Country, MSCI EM, and benchmark indices in UK, Europe, and U.S. all hit record highs.
• SECTORS/SHARES: Six sectors on the S&P 500 rise, five fall. Tech +4%, energy -0.5%. Palantir +30%. Sandisk, Intel, Super Micro Computer +11%. SpaceX, AMD both -10% after the bell.
• FX: Dollar/yen rebounds, nudges 158. BRL -1%, CLP +1.5%
• BONDS: 10y Japan yield spikes to 2.87% after poor auction. U.S. yields down 4-7 bps, curve bull flattens
• COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil -5.5%. Platinum, palladium +7%.
Today’s Talking Points:
Dollar drift?
The U.S.’s historic intervention in the yen last week may mark an inflection point for the dollar, not just against Japan’s flailing currency, but more broadly. If dollar/yen has topped out, and the threat of more intervention forces traders to cover their massive short yen position, the spillover to other dollar/Asia crosses is not difficult to imagine.
Does this ease some of the ‘beggar thy neighbor’ approach to FX policy across Asia? Again, it’s a plausible scenario, especially if peace breaks out in the Middle East and the slump in oil prices continues to pull Treasury yields down from their recent highs. A lot of “ifs and buts” in there, but there is a case building that the dollar’s 2026 race might be run.
Reaction (mall)function
A 20% slump in oil prices over the last 10 days has taken the heat off the Treasury market, at least at the short end, and by extension, the Fed. But debate continues to swirl around what the Kevin Warsh Fed’s reaction function will be. Warsh refuses to tell us what his is, so investors are taking their cue from others.
The three FOMC dissenters explained their decisions on Friday, and New York and Philadelphia Fed Presidents John Williams and Anna Paulson have outlined their thinking this week. Is the center of gravity at the FOMC starting to shift? The 9-3 vote to leave rates unchanged last week wasn’t necessarily a “dovish hold”, and it is likely to be quite different in September. Rate futures only pointing to one fully-priced hike this year. Too timid?
Block rockin’ BEATS
Investors by now know just how strong U.S. earnings growth is, but some of the numbers bear repeating. According to SocGen earlier on Tuesday, six out of 10 firms have reported, 70% of market cap, and only 9% have missed estimates, the lowest reading ever, while 86% of firms have beaten estimates. Both S&P 500 and ex-tech margins have hit record highs. Q2 y/y earnings growth will be over 30%, according to UBS, and even approaching 50%, according to LSEG estimates.
Either way, it’s a bullish backdrop. Is it all priced in though? High market leverage and real yields are headwinds, but a reversal would require aggressive Fed tightening and yield curve inversion, says SocGen. So no reason why 8000 on the S&P 500 cannot be reached, right?
What could move markets tomorrow?
• India interest rate decision
• Brazil interest rate decision
• U.S. services ISM index (July)
• U.S. Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak — Governor Lisa Cook, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly
• U.S. earnings, including Eli Lilly, Sandisk, Western Digital, Disney, Uber
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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
(Reporting by Jamie McGeever;)
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